None of my numbers hit. After we all lost at the lottery we looked at how to calculate probability. Some notes we took were:
-Probability: A value between 0 and 1 assigned to a random outcome -Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes (Ex: rolling a die, sample space=6) -Event: A successful outcome (Ex: rolling a 6=1) -P(A): Probability of A (Probability of event A occurring) P(A)= #of successful outcomes (events)/total outcomes (sample space) Ex: Rolling a 6/ Rolling a die= 1/6 After we learned those terms we looked at the 4 different types of probability: basic probability=P(A), complements= P(Ac), intersections P(A and B), and unions= P(AUB). We used these skills to transition into Independent vs. Dependent Events, Conditional Probability, and finally Expected Value. Once we learned all of these things we had all the tools we needed to solve for the CA Lottery Problem (see below for worksheets). |
But then we realized that you can have any combination of 5 numbers and then once you chose one it decreases to 4, then 3 and so on until you get to one (to the right).Then for the mega number you just leave it as 1/27 because you pick any 1 number and it can repeat. So for the total combinations we got 4,969,962,360. And the probability of winning the lottery is 120/4,969,962,360, Which simplified is 1/41,416,353. Which means that 1 in every 41,416,353 people win the lottery, which is also 0%.
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Problem Evaluation:
I liked this problem because I thought it was something that really connected to the real world. What pushed my thinking was the challenge option (below) because we started at .80 and had to get it down to .0 with out having to calculate for each million we added. I think I got the most out of question #3 and the challenge option because now I know how to calculate when the reward gets high enough that the lotto doesn't profit, so I think this problem wasn't just like normal problems when you're like okay when am I ever going to use this in real life? I think this problem had a really good real world connection so for me that made it more relevant. |
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